FHA’s Mortgage Delinquencies Soar

Closer to a bailout? FHA’s mortgage delinquencies soar

By Tami Luhby @CNNMoney July 9, 2012: 12:38 PM ET

Delinquencies and foreclosures of FHA-backed mortgages are soaring, putting further strain on the housing agency's finances and making a taxpayer bailout more likely.Delinquencies and foreclosures of FHA-backed mortgages are soaring, putting further strain on the housing agency’s finances and making a taxpayer bailout more likely.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The mortgage market appears to finally be stabilizing — as long as you ignore loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration.

Increasingly, FHA-insured loans are falling into foreclosure or serious delinquency, moving in the opposite direction of loans guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or those held by banks, which are all showing signs of improvement.

And taxpayers could ultimately be on the hook for FHA’s growing number of troubled mortgages. The agency’s finances are already on shaky ground, and additional losses from loans going sour could prompt the need for a federal bailout, experts said.

“We can’t escape this one,” said Joseph Gyourko, a real estate professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. “This is an arm of the U.S. government.”

The share of government-guaranteed loans, a majority of which are backed by FHA, that were 90 days or more delinquent soared nearly 27% during the year ending March 31. Foreclosures jumped nearly 17%, according to a report published recently by federal regulators.

At the same time, bank loans saw a dramatic improvement, with delinquencies shrinking by 39% and foreclosures declining by nearly 10%. Fannie and Freddie’s portfolio also improved as delinquencies dropped by nearly 15% and foreclosures slid by more than 6%, the quarterly report issued by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said.

FHA has also had a tougher time successfully modifying loans. More than 48% of government-guaranteed mortgages re-defaulted 12 months after modification, compared to 36.2% of loans overall, the report said.

FHA’s risky borrowers: FHA doesn’t make loans, but it backstops lenders if borrowers stop paying. With this guarantee in place, banks are more likely to offer mortgages to borrowers with lower credit scores or incomes.

FHA-backed loans made up more than 29% of the market for home purchases in the first quarter of 2012, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry publication.

Housing experts have been warning for years that many FHA-insured loans are not sustainable, especially in these troubled times. That’s particularly concerning because FHA’s share of the market has swelled in recent years as lenders pulled back on providing mortgages that weren’t backed by the government.

One of the main critiques of FHA loans is that they require very low downpayments — a minimum of 3.5%. In an environment where home prices are declining, borrowers can quickly slip underwater and owe more than their property is worth.

“These are very risky loans,” said Ed Pinto, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. And loans made in the past three years are “moving into the beginning of the peak delinquency period and they are very big books of business.”

Unless the economy improves significantly over the next few years, FHA will experience even more delinquencies, said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance.

Little room for failure: The dramatic jump in delinquencies comes despite the agency’s efforts to improve the quality of the loans it insures.

Over the past several years, soaring defaults have been eating away atFHA’s emergency reserves, which cover losses on the mortgages it insures. In fiscal 2009, the reserve fund dropped to 0.53% of FHA’s insurance guarantees, well below the 2% ratio mandated by Congress. By late last year, it had fallen to 0.24%.

FHA pledged to shore up its standards and its finances in 2009. The agency has since increased its insurance premiumsestablished minimum credit scores for borrowers, required larger downpayments from those with credit scores below 580 and banned sellers from assisting borrowers with the downpayment. It also created an office of risk management and cracked down on lenders with questionable underwriting processes.

Despite the emergency fund’s diminishing reserves, FHA maintains that its efforts are working. The loans insured starting in 2009 are much higher quality and should lower delinquency levels over time, an FHA official said.

“We expect the new books will continue with their better performance, primarily because of the steps that were put in place,” he said. “And we are benefiting from having more high-credit borrowers.”

Still, FHA watchers warn that the agency doesn’t have much of a cushion against these rising delinquencies and foreclosures. And if the losses grow too great, the agency could need a taxpayer-funded bailout.

The FHA says that its reserves should be restored by 2014 barring a second recession, but outside experts aren’t so sure.

“They are doing very badly … there’s no two ways about it,” said Andrew Caplin, a New York University economics professor who has studied the agency. “Over the next five years, there won’t be enough of an economic recovery to fix FHA’s finances. Not a chance.” To top of page

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How the West is winning on home prices: Clear Capital

REAL ESTATE
How the West is winning on home prices: Clear Capital
By Jessica Huseman

• July 10, 2012 • 8:14am

Quarterly home values in June improved nationally, continuing a positive trend from the spring. National prices rebounded with quarterly and yearly gains of 1.7%, according to Clear Capital, which forecast continued growth through the remainder of the year.

National home prices picked up notable momentum over last month’s marginal gains of 0.1%, the Trukee, Calif.-based data and valuation company said. It predicted additional growth of 2.5% forecasted through the end of the year.

“June home price trends provided further evidence that housing has turned the corner, with the momentum of the recovery picking up speed,” said  Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital.

Clear Capital uses a rolling quarter measure, which compares the most recent four months to the previous three months. The rolling quarters have no fixed start date and can be used to generate indices as data flows in to reduce multimonth lag time.

The West came in with the highest gains, showing quarter-over-quarter growth of 3.5% — an increase of 0.8% over May and annual price gains of 4.1%. Clear Capital expects the trend to continue through 2012 with an additional 5.75% growth over the next two quarters.

While the recovery generally began in the lower-priced segments, growth spread across all price tiers in the West, which the report calls an “important step in the progression of this recovery.”

In the quarter, low-tier gains in the West hit 3.6% (sales less than $140,000), mid-tier gains reached 3.1% (homes selling between $140,000 and $347,000) and top-tier gains climbed to 3.2%. This led the West to push ahead of the South, the next closest region, by 2%.

The South continued to grow in June, pushing up 1.5% over the rolling quarter, slightly above May’s 1.2% gain.

The Midwest saw the largest increase over last month in quarterly home prices, rising 1.2% compared to May’s quarterly losses of 2%. It was the only region not posting year-over-year gains, with a loss of 0.6%.

Home prices in the Northeast rose 2.3% over the last year. The South experienced a smaller price hike of 1.5% over the last year and during the quarter, an improvement over the annual growth of 0.9% shown in last month’s report.

The top 50 metro markets also posted gains in June, with the large majority of markets seeing quarterly gains and only seven seeing slides. Of those markets that posted losses, only four saw declines larger than 1%.

The report indicates more good news out of Phoenix, which has been showing consistent signs of strength for the past 10 months. Clear Capital reported quarterly growth of 8.7% in Phoenix with annual gains of 20.4%.

Seattle, where prices rose 8.4% over the quarter, could see prices rise 14.4% annually once final numbers of 2012 are in, while Phoenix prices could rise by 10.4% annually.

Atlanta is not positioned to do as well. It sustained the largest declines of all the MSAs. However, the anticipated losses of 3.2% seem mild in comparison to Atlanta’s total declines of 53.5% from peak prices in 2006.

jhuseman@housingwire.com
@JessicaHuseman

COURTESY OF YOUR NUMBER ONE ARCADIA REAL ESTATE AGENT

Pasadena Market Report (May 2011 – May 2012)

Pasadena Market Report (May 2012)

COURTESY OF YOUR NUMBER ONE ARCADIA REAL ESTATE AGENT

Homeowner Aid Boosts Big Banks

By CHRISTIAN BERTHELSEN and ALAN ZIBEL

A government program that helps struggling homeowners take advantage of low interest rates to cut monthly mortgage payments is providing an unexpected revenue boost to large banks such as Wells Fargo WFC +0.43% & Co. and J.P. Morgan ChaseJPM -0.91% & Co.

[refinance]European Pressphoto AgencyHUD Secretary Shaun Donovan says there is ‘essentially a monopoly on refinancings’ among the largest banks.

Banks that collect those payments, known as mortgage servicers, could get as much as $12 billion in revenue this year refinancing mortgages under the federal Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, according to data compiled by Nomura Holdings Inc.

A government program that helps struggling homeowners take advantage of low interest rates to cut monthly mortgage payments is providing an unexpected revenue boost to large banks. Christian Berthelsen has details on The News Hub. Photo: Reuters.

Borrowers who refinance mortgages through HARP, on the other hand, stand to save between $2.5 billion and $5 billion this year, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal of Nomura’s figures.

The contrast is the latest illustration of the competing demands policy makers must juggle when they devise responses to the housing bust, now in its sixth year. Federal officials last year revised the HARP program in a bid to encourage banks to refinance borrowers who were current on their payments but owed more than their properties were worth.

The revisions have driven a sharp increase in refinancings, following years in which the program fell short of government projections. But some critics, including members of the Obama administration, say the changes risk making HARP a giveaway to big banks.

[REFINANCE]

That is because the new HARP rules make it easier for borrowers to refinance their loans with existing lenders. That, the critics say, allows large lenders to charge a captive customer base above-market interest rates on the refinanced loans. Borrowers refinancing through their existing lender make up about 75% of HARP refinancings, according to government figures.

“There’s essentially a monopoly on refinancing,” Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said at a Senate hearing last month. For borrowers, Mr. Donovan said, “Whoever holds their current loan, whoever is the servicer, they can charge them—and we’re seeing this—very high fees.”

The Obama administration and some mortgage-industry participants say this arrangement leaves the lion’s share of refinancing activity with giant banks. Among the biggest beneficiaries: Wells Fargo, which held a third of the market as of March, and J.P. Morgan, with more than 10%, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. U.S. BancorpUSB +0.09% Bank of America Corp.BAC -1.22% and Citigroup Inc. C -2.12% rounded out the top five, which together hold 58% of the market.

Banks have been charging HARP borrowers as much as 0.53 percentage point more than the market rate on the refinanced mortgages, according to Amherst Securities. Officials at the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the independent regulator that runs the program, said the premium is far smaller, around 0.1 percentage point on average, for Fannie Mae borrowers.

A Wells Fargo spokeswoman said the bank’s rates are “competitive with our traditional refinancing loan options.” A J.P. Morgan spokeswoman declined to comment on the rates it is charging borrowers but said “demand from customers has exceeded our expectations.” A Bank of America spokeswoman said, “We offer market-driven pricing for both HARP and traditional refinances.” A spokesman for Citi said the bank is offering market rates. A U.S. Bancorp spokesman couldn’t be reached for comment.

The administration is pressing lawmakers to make it easier for consumers to refinance with different lenders. A senior administration official said the administration tried to get the FHFA to change the policy last year but was unable to do so.

The FHFA, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which finance the lion’s share of home mortgages, defends the program’s structure. Officials there say that any lack of competition is a problem felt in the overall mortgage market, which has shrunk for years with the collapse of many nonbank lenders and the retreat of large banks such as Bank of America, and not a result of HARP.

“We feel very comfortable that lenders are offering borrowers the HARP product at the going market rate,” said Meg Burns, the FHFA’s senior associate director for housing policy.

Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Timothy Sloan told analysts in an April 13 conference call that HARP refinancings made up 15% of new mortgages during the first quarter. At J.P. Morgan, Chief Executive James Dimon told analysts on a conference call April 13 that profit margins “were several hundred million [dollars] higher than what we would call normal for a whole bunch of different reasons, including HARP” and mortgage-industry dynamics such as supply and demand.

Banks also can reap gains as the mortgages are securitized and sold, because of reduced risk that borrowers will repay their mortgages early. Margins on the sale of securitized mortgages averaged 2.1 percentage points higher in the first quarter this year than last year among the top five servicers, an analysis of data from investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods shows.

The original HARP, rolled out in 2009, blocked borrowers from refinancing if they owed more than 125% of their home’s value. Fewer than 900,000 borrowers had used the program when President Barack Obama announced changes last fall. The revamped program removed that loan-to-value cap and made other tweaks.

Mortgage rates have hit the lowest levels on record, sinking to an average of 3.71% for a 30-year fixed rate loan last week, according to Freddie Mac.

Nomura analyst Glenn Schorr said in a research note that most borrowers seeking HARP loans are paying interest rates of 5%-6%. Those borrowers, he said, “would certainly prefer a 3.75% mortgage, but they will happily take a 4%, 4.25% or even a 4.5% loan as well.”

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I’ll Have Another Has a Chance at the First Triple Crown Since 1978!

I’ll Have Another has a chance to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978!

Adapted from a Santa Anita Park press release.


Tickets on Sale Now for BREEDERS’ CUP WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS at Santa Anita Park

Adapted from a Santa Anita Park press release.

ARCADIA, Calif. (June 4, 2012) – The Breeders’ Cup and Santa Anita Park today announced that tickets are now on sale to the general public for this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships, Friday, November 2 and Saturday, November 3. This is the sixth time that that Santa Anita will host the event and the third time under the two-day Championship format, which will begin on Friday with a 10-race program. Saturday’s card will include 12 races and will finish with the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at approximately 5:30 p.m. PT.

The 29th Breeders’ Cup, Thoroughbred racing’s most prestigious global event, consists of 15 races with purses and awards totaling more than $25 million.

The 2009 Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita featured some of the greatest moments in racing history as more than 96,000 fans were in attendance over the two-day event, climaxed by super mare Zenyatta becoming the first female ever to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

This year, fans will be able to purchase Breeders’ Cup tickets in two ways:

Fans may log on to the Web at www.breederscup.com/tickets to access the online ticket system, which allows purchasers to view seat locations and buy their tickets in a fast, efficient manner. Those without online access or in need of assistance may purchase tickets by telephone by calling toll-free at 1 877-910-9511.

Due to the success of the recently concluded pre-sale, most premium areas have already been sold; however, excellent seats are available in Grandstand Reserved, Turf Club box seating and Dining. Among the ticketing options for this year’s Championships are:

Ticket prices for reserved seats on Championship Friday range from $40-$250 and on Championship Saturday from $75-$300. There are also bundled two-day packages available for Grandstand Reserved seats, Turf Club box seating and premium dining experiences.

All fans purchasing reserved seating (Grandstand, Clubhouse and Turf Club) will receive free track programs on both Friday and Saturday upon entering the racetrack.

Fans will have the option to purchase single seats within a Turf Club Box and in the following Dining areas: Sirona’s Paddock View Dining and Clockers’ Corner Trackside Dining. ·

General Admission print-at-home tickets will go on sale beginning October 1. Fans will receive a 25% discount on general admission prices by purchasing their tickets in advance and online. The online price for Championship Friday will be $10. General Admission online price on Championship Saturday is $15. General admission prices at the gate on Championship Friday will be $15 and $20 on Championship Saturday.

Breeders’ Cup and Santa Anita Park have enlisted QuintEvents as its official provider of fan experience packages. Fans will be able to select from packages that include Friday & Saturday Championships tickets and private hospitality with celebrity jockey ‘meet and greet’ opportunities and add-on such enhancements as: parties, ground transportation and hotels. Log on to www.breederscup.com/tickets or call 866-834-8663 for more information.

“Together with our host, Santa Anita Park, we look forward to another outstanding experience for our fans from around the globe attending the Breeders’ Cup to enjoy the most spectacular two-days of racing at one of the world’s most remarkable racetracks,” said Craig Fravel, Breeders’ Cup President and CEO. “We were delighted with the record turnout in 2009 and encourage fans to take advantage of the new seating options available this year.”

“This is an exciting time for all of us at Santa Anita and we’re happy to be able to begin selling tickets on June 4 for the two-day Breeders’ Cup in November,” said Santa Anita President George Haines. “I’ve been a part of every Breeders’ Cup dating back to 1986 and they’ve all been tremendous successes.

We’re hopeful this year’s event is going to be our best ever and we look forward to once again welcoming our fans and horsemen from all over the world to what we believe is the most beautiful venue in all of racing. The Best is Certainly Yet to Come.”

About Breeders’ Cup

The Breeders’ Cup administers the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, Thoroughbred racing’s year-end Championships. The Breeders’ Cup also administers the Breeders’ Cup Challenge qualifying series, which provides automatic starting positions into the Championships races. The 2012 Breeders’ Cup World Championships, consisting of 15 races and purses totaling more than $25 million will be held Nov. 2-3 at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, Calif., and will be televised live by the NBC Sports Network. Breeders’ Cup press releases appear on the Breeders’ Cup Web site, www.breederscup.com. You can also follow the Breeders’ Cup on social media platforms, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.

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Mortgage rates keep plunging: 15-year dips below 3%

By Jessica Dickler @CNNMoney May 31, 2012: 12:45 PM ET
mortgage-rates

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Mortgage rates continued to plunge to new lows this week, with interest rates on the 15-year fixed rate mortgage dipping below 3% for the first time on record.

The 30-year fixed mortgage, the most popular mortgage product, fell by 0.03 percentage points to 3.75%, setting yet another record for the fifth week in a row, according to a weekly survey by Freddie Mac. Last year, 30-year loans averaged 4.55%. The new low can save borrowers about $47 a month for every $100,000 borrowed. Over a 30-year term, that comes to $16,756.

Rates on the 15-year fixed mortgage, which is popular among those looking to refinance, fell to 2.97% — the first time it has dropped below 3% since Freddie Mac began tracking the weekly data. Down from 3.74% a year ago, the new 15-year rate would lower borrowing costs to $689 a month for every $100,000 borrowed, a $37 savings compared to last year.

The continued slide in mortgage rates is, in part, due to ongoingeconomic turmoil in Europe, according to Freddie Mac’s chief economist, Frank Nothaft.

“Market concerns over tensions in the Eurozone led to a decline in long-term Treasury bond yields helping to bring fixed mortgage rates to new record lows this week,” he said.

Rates are almost half what they were at the peak of the housing bubble in mid-2006. At the time, the average interest rate was about 6.75% for a 30-year loan.

Meanwhile, home prices have hit new post-bubble lows, according to the most recent S&P/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major markets. Home prices have not been this low since mid-2002.

Much lower home prices, along with affordable mortgages, should help to bolster the housing market, but don’t expect a vigorous recovery to follow, said Mike Larson, a housing market analyst for Weiss Research.

“The less you have to pay for a house the better that is but it’s not a cure all,” he said. “Despite lower interest rates, there is still a weak economy and weak job market. That’s not good for underlying housing demand.”

How to Find Low-Cost Investing Help

Want assistance but only have a small nest egg? You’ve got a number of options.

Getting high-quality investment advice at a reasonable cost might seem like a challenge, particularly for anyone with a modest nest egg.

But if you’re a mutual-fund investor with a smaller portfolio, take heart. Advisory fees have fallen significantly because of competition, changes in the way financial advisers package services and the arrival of low-cost Internet-based money-management services.

Individuals have a much larger range of advisory choices than ever before, says Matt Matrisian, an expert on advisory services at the wealth-management arm of Genworth Financial Inc., GNW -1.91% based in Richmond, Va.

ADVICE

David Pohl

Some advisers will craft a basic financial plan and suggest portfolio allocations for a flat fee of less than $1,000 in an effort to build a relationship with a client. Others might do it free, although you will pay continuing money-management fees.

There are some caveats. If you opt for a low-cost service, you may not have the option of calling someone for reassurance if stocks take a tumble. And as your portfolio grows and your life circumstances change, you probably would benefit from spending more on additional services such as educational, tax or estate planning.

But especially for people who have just started accumulating assets, a basic advisory service may be all you need. Here’s what you need to know about finding advisory services at a cost you can afford:

TRADITIONAL SERVICE

A full-service adviser will try to gauge your tolerance for risk and gather many details about your assets, debts and objectives before designing a portfolio. A really comprehensive financial plan—one that might include estate planning, for example—can cost $2,000 or a lot more.

On top of that, advisers traditionally have charged annual fees of around 1% to 2% of the amount in your portfolio to oversee it. Others get paid by steering investors toward funds that require an upfront sales commission, or “load.”

If you invest in funds—as most people with smaller portfolios do—you also will have to pay the funds’ expenses, which range from less than 0.25% for some index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds to 1% to 2% for some actively managed funds.

All in all, annual money-management fees could cost you around 2% to 3%, a good-sized bite in an era of low interest rates and uncertain equity returns.

HELP ON A BUDGET

Some individual planners and advisers may agree to work at lower fees if they think it will help them forge a long-term relationship with you.

Some may agree to work on an hourly fee basis—$300 an hour is a typical rate—or on a flat-fee-per-project basis.

You can find a financial adviser who might suit your personal needs through websites operated by trade groups such as the Financial Planning Association (fpanet.org), the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (Napfa.org) or the Alliance of Cambridge Advisors (ACAplanners.org). Another option is Garrett Planning Network (Garrettplanningnetwork.com), a network of fee-only advisers who charge by the hour.

Do some homework before calling a prospective adviser. Pull together your financial data and do some online research to learn about the services advisers offer and what they charge, says Lynn Ballou, a certified financial planner and managing partner of Ballou Plum Wealth Advisors LLC in Lafayette, Calif.

Be straightforward about what you believe you can afford, and don’t apologize for asking for a basic level of service, Ms. Ballou says. “You need to make sure you have the right fit” when hiring an adviser, she says.

MUTUAL-FUND ROUTE

Some mutual-fund firms provide no-frill advisory services to people who invest in their products, although there often is a minimum asset requirement.

For example, investors with portfolios of less than $50,000 can get a basic financial plan and allocation recommendations for a flat fee of $1,000 from fund giant Vanguard Group. That fee falls to $250 for people with at least $50,000 to invest.

USAA, a diversified financial-services firm in San Antonio that focuses mainly on U.S. military families, offers free financial planning and investment advice to anyone via telephone, without any minimum asset requirement, says Mary Stork, an executive in its financial-advice and financial-services group. However, USAA advisers will tailor a portfolio only with the firm’s own mutual funds, and you’ll need to have $250,000 to invest if you want a face-to-face meeting.

DISCOUNT-BROKER OPTION

Discount brokerage firms, which have long served do-it-yourself investors, have started to provide advice and portfolio-management services, too.

People who open an account at discount brokerage Charles Schwab Corp.,SCHW -2.89% for example, can receive a free personal consultation, in person or via phone, and get a financial plan and recommended investment allocations, says Brennan Miller, a Schwab financial consultant based in suburban Chicago.

If you have at least $50,000 to invest, Schwab will create and manage a mutual-fund portfolio for you. The firm charges an annual management fee of 0.50% on the first $250,000 in assets, which covers all transactions and any rebalancing, but not management expenses charged by funds. Schwab also will create and manage a portfolio of ETFs for clients with at least $100,000, for an annual fee that starts at 0.75% of assets.

 

WEB-BASED SERVICES

If you already bank and shop on the Internet, managing your money there might be a natural next step.

Wealthfront.com automates the process of creating a risk profile, recommends a portfolio of ETFs and periodically rebalances it. It requires a minimum of $5,000. Other than expenses charged by the ETFs it uses, it charges no advisory fee on the first $25,000. If you invest more, the fee rises to 0.25% a year.

Wealthfront users won’t speak with a human at the firm unless they encounter a problem that requires technical support.

The service mainly targets young professionals in the tech industry because those “who live their lives on the Web” are likely to be most receptive, says Andy Rachleff, president and chief executive officer. But the service is open to anyone and has attracted others who want to be like those in Silicon Valley, says Mr. Rachleff.

Another online service, Betterment.com, offer personal consultations to people who invest at least $100,000. Those take place with its chief executive officer, Jon Stein, who also is a chartered financial analyst.

Annual fees range from 0.35% for those with less than $10,000 to 0.15% for a portfolio of at least $100,000. There is no required minimum, but the service does ask users, at the least, to commit to arranging a $100 monthly transfer into their Betterment accounts.

Betterment relies on a total of only eight equity and bond ETFs, all from Vanguard orBlackRock Inc.’s BLK -3.07% iShares unit, for varied allocations of its clients.

“By simplifying the solution set, we believe we help people make better decisions,” says Mr. Stein.

Mr. Pollock is a writer in Ridgewood, N.J. Email him at reports@wsj.com.

 

For Mortgage Lenders, Less is More

The first rule of successful prognostication is never to mention a number and a time in the same sentence.

tape0529

Bloomberg NewsWells Fargo writes one in three U.S. mortgages and saw $2.62 billion in net gains on mortgage originations and sales in the first quarter.

Economists at the Mortgage Bankers Association haven’t taken the easy way out though. With homeowners chasing fresh lows in mortgage rates, last week the trade group increased its estimate for 2012 refinancing activity to $870 billion.

That is $200 billion more than its previous estimate and is more than twice its $400 billion forecast of last summer. Wednesday’s report on weekly refinancing activity is expected to underpin this with a fourth, consecutive rise; activity increased 5.6% last week on a seasonally adjusted, weekly basis.

This year’s torrid refinancing activity is translating into big profits for some banks, but the connection isn’t as direct as it seems. With many borrowers unable to meet stricter lending standards, activity is just half of that seen during the housing boom’s heyday.

[AOT]

But it is more profitable. That is because banks’ “gain on sale” for each mortgage is far higher—a swing of some $3,000 on a typical loan, estimates Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance. “Since 2008, we’ve had a lack of real competition in the mortgage market,” he says.

Wells Fargo WFC -4.91% & Co. is an example. It writes one in three U.S. mortgages and saw $2.62 billion in net gains on mortgage originations and sales in the first quarter. That was up 127% from a year earlier and equaled a big chunk of its $4.25 billion in first-quarter net income.

The upshot for borrowers is that, while rates are near record lows for those with good credit, they could be even lower.

Chalk that up to banks that see no need to chase customers. And why add capacity now? Just months ago, banks’ own experts were telling them that average rates for 30-year fixed mortgages would be 5% in 2012 and that business volume would be half of today’s level.

For what it is worth, the MBA’s prediction is for a 60% drop next year in refinancing. If it is finally right, it means that banks’ mortgage profits will shrink. But, should it be because rates rise and not just that the pool of eligible refinancing candidates shrinks further, borrowers waiting to pounce on that lower rate shouldn’t dawdle.

Spencer Jakab at spencer.jakab@wsj.com

China’s Hidden Housing Debt

By TOM ORLIK

China’s property sector might be sinking in the sand of mounting liabilities.

The official data suggest that loans to China’s thousands of developers at the end of the first quarter totaled a manageable 3.6 trillion yuan ($570 billion), equal to just 6.3% of total yuan loans in the banking system.

A look at the financials of 159 mainland-listed developers, though, suggests the official numbers are not telling the whole story. Numbers from Wind—a China data provider—show total liabilities for this subset ballooned to 1.8 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2012. That’s more than 100% higher than the level when the government first pointed its policy needle at the property bubble in early 2010.

[CHINAHERD]

Mounting liabilities reflect a variety of factors. In 2010, despite declaring war on house prices, the government was slow to clamp down on credit. By 2011, loans were in short supply but developers allowed other liabilities like supplier invoices to mount. Most recently, lending rebounded in the first quarter of 2012, listed developers borrowed 48 billion yuan, more than twice the figure for all of 2011.

Official data might also understate the banks’ exposure to property. Alongside bona fide developers, state-owned enterprises are sometimes tempted to dabble, either as developers or speculators. Some loans intended for building blast furnaces or shipping fleets actually end up as luxury apartments.

The banks are also exposed through the use of property as collateral. At Bank of China,3988.HK -0.98% for example, 39% of loans were secured on property and other immoveable assets at the end of 2011. The risk is that a sharper-than-expected price fall would hit developers’ ability to repay loans at the same time as the a decline in the value of property banks hold as collateral.

China’s real-estate sector is in a policy-induced correction, with sales and prices both down from a year ago. Despite that, signs of a modest recovery in demand and easier access to credit in recent months have made markets optimistic about the prospects of a soft landing. Listed mainland developers have rallied strongly in Hong Kong this year.

If sales continue creeping higher, most developers are well placed to cover their debts. But if sales dry up, higher debt than is recognized in official data means the foundations of China’s real-estate sector are less solid than they appear.