The Door Is Now Open to Home Builders

Housing is hot again.

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It was a sign of renewed investor enthusiasm last week when real-estate-information firm Trulia Inc.’s TRLA -4.04% share price rose more than 40% on Thursday following its initial public offering. So was the surge Friday in KB Home KBH +16.40% shares after KB reported an unexpected quarterly profit. Although home prices turned the corner just this past spring, shares of home builders have more than tripled on average since their 2009 nadir.

Next up is Lennar Corp., LEN +2.49% which is slated to report fiscal third-quarter earnings Monday. Analysts expect earnings of 28 cents a share for the period ending in August, up sharply from 11 cents a year earlier.

For a while this spring it was possible to debate whether the long-awaited turn had come in house prices, as some measures turned positive while the widely followed S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index lagged behind. Now that measure, due Tuesday, is pointing up as well, although its originator, Robert Shiller, says he isn’t convinced we have hit the bottom yet.

In any case, there is cause for at least short-term cheer, particularly for home builders that rallied after last week’s housing-starts data. Single-family housing starts rose at the quickest pace since April 2010—a period artificially boosted by a tax credit for first-time home buyers. Lennar’s share price broke above $37 Friday for the first time since June 2007, ending at $38. Is it deserved? In its last reported quarter, the company sold 3,222 houses, up 20% year on year. But in 2006 it sold nearly 50,000 in a year. Even though its operating margin nearly doubled to 9.2% in the second quarter, that is still shy of the mid-to-low teens Lennar enjoyed in its heyday.

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Bloomberg NewsKB Home shares surge Friday after the company reported an unexpected quarterly profit.

In a way, that is encouraging, because there should be more upside even with the stock trading at nearly 27 times 2013 earnings estimates. Housing starts have slumped mightily since their peak, and pent-up demand is significant. Between 1992 and 2007, single-family starts averaged nearly 1.3 million a year, while they averaged just 500,000 the following four years. The Fed’s recent steps to further boost housing by buying mortgage-backed securities bode well, too.

While not home-free, home builders have given investors some grounds to justify recent gains.

By Spencer Jakab

COURTESY OF YOUR NUMBER ONE ARCADIA REAL ESTATE AGENT

Can You Afford to Buy a Second Home?

By Jeff Brown
With more and more signs that the housing market is inching off the bottom, homeowners with good credit and lots of resourcesare once again asking the question: Can I afford a second home?There’s something irresistible about the dream of a vacation place at the beach, lake or in the mountains. Summer vacations, the clan gathering for holidays, a place to pass down through the generations… It’s the American Dream, Act II.

The problem, of course, is coming up with the money. If you don’t have a trunk full of cash, the next easiest option is to borrow against your primary residence, thus avoiding the complex issues raised by a loan application specifically to buy a second home. But to borrow against your main home, it must be worth substantially more than you owe on a mortgage or home equity loan.

To take out a new loan to buy a second home you will have to convince the lender you are an especially good risk. That’s because lenders know that people are more likely to default on payments for a second home than a primary residence, or to skimp on maintenance or fall behind on property taxes or insurance.

So the first issue is your debt-to-income ratio, figured by dividing your total monthly debt payments for everything — existing mortgage, the new mortgage, car and credit card payments, and so on — by your gross monthly income. If the figure is less than 36 percent, you have a fair shot at a loan, if your payment history and credit rating are good. Some lenders will approve applicants with higher ratios; you’ll have to shop around.

Also expect lenders to demand a down payment of at least 20 percent, possibly twice that much, or even more. A large down payment reduces the loan-to-value ratio, figured by dividing the loan amount by the property’s current value, estimated by an appraiser approved by the lender. The smaller the loan relative to the value, the more likely the lender would recover what it is owed if you default and the lender must foreclose and sell the property.

You’re also likely to pay a higher interest rate on a mortgage for a second home — again, to offset the greater risk to the lender.

Discouraged yet? Don’t be. After all, even if lenders are more conservative these days, they make money only if they approve loans.

To make all this easier, try this calculator from The Mortgage Professor website. In the Occupancy Type window click Second Home. Note that in the Monthly Debt Payments window you should include your current mortgage payment if you will add a new mortgage for the second home.

Also play with this calculator from SmartMoney.

Before going too far down the road, check with some lenders for down payment requirementsand interest rates on second-home loans. Until then, experiment with down payments of 20 percent, 30 percent and 40 percent, and add 0.5 to 1 percentage points to the mortgage rates from the Bankingmyway.com survey.

For a sense of how lenders approach second-home applications, look at this site from Wells Fargo. It shows, for example, that it is difficult to get potential rental income included in the loan qualification calculation, a key consideration if you plan to rent out your second home part of the time.

Even if a lender will approve your loan, think about how comfortable you would be with this new financial obligation. You’ll need a healthy financial cushion for unexpected repairs and upkeep, a drop in your pay, a shortfall in rental income or a jump in taxes or insurance fees.

Finally, give your dream a reality check. Many people find, for example, that they lose interest in vacationing at the same place all the time. And a second home can someday become a bone of contention among the buyer’s children or grandchildren.

COURTESY OF YOUR NUMBER ONE ARCADIA REAL ESTATE AGENT

U.S. existing home sales rise in August, prices up from year ago

WASHINGTON, Sept 19 | Wed Sep 19, 2012 9:59am EDT

(Reuters) – The pace of U.S. home resales rose in August to its fastest in over two years and the price for sold homes climbed from a year earlier, hopeful signs that a budding housing market recovery is gaining traction.

The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday that existing home sales increased 7.8 percent last month to an annual rate of 4.82 million units last month.

That was the fastest annual rate since May 2010 and well above analysts’ expectations of a 4.55 million-unit rate.

Nationwide, the median price for a home resale rose to $187,400 in August, up 9.5 percent from a year earlier as fewer people sold their homes under distressed conditions.

The nation’s inventory of homes – those for sale on the market – rose 2.9 percent during the month to 2.47 million.

“The housing market recovery is becoming much more convincing,” said NAR economist Lawrence Yun.

The price increase is measured against August 2011, and since then distressed sales have fallen to 22 percent of total sales from 31 percent. Distressed sales also fell in August of this year compared to the prior month.

While the broader U.S. economy appears to be losing steam, housing has gained traction and has become a relative bright spot

 

COURTESY OF YOUR NUMBER ONE ARCADIA REAL ESTATE AGENT

Five Things Stagers are Tired of Seeing

DATE:MARCH 5, 2012 | AUTHOR:ROSLYN ASHFORD | CATEGORY:TIPS & ADVICE

Last  week, I conducted an informal survey of home stagers from the US and Canada on what they are tired of seeing in homes to be staged.  The responses were varied, but the issue below are the ones that bubbled to the top.  Stagers often meet with homeowners who are preparing their home for the market, and get to see a lot of homes. Here are a few “trigger” points from them, but I am sure there are more!

Dusty fake plants

There are number of easy to grow houseplants widely available, from the virtually indestructible snake plant to the common philodendron.  Some plants thrive well in low-sun and others work well with lots of sun and less watering.  Consequently, there is really no need for fake plants in real life!  They end up being dust collectors!

Messiness

Now we all know that not everyone is Felix Unger neat.  But if you KNOW your house is on the market (hint – there is a real estate agent‘s lockbox on the outside of your front or side door), there is no need to leave your home with underwear on the floor, unmade beds and stack of laundry on the coffee table.   Would YOU be motivated to buy a home that shows like this?  Why leave it like that for someone else?

Popcorn ceilings and wood paneling

What else can be said, these items instantly date your home.  If only I had a magic wand to make all the bad ceilings and wood paneling go away.

Kitchen cabinets busting at the seams

You know all of those small plastic containers accumulated from the weekly trips to the deli at the grocery store?  Yes, it is okay to recycle these, along with plastic bottles, cans and glass bottles. Or you could even include some when you donate clothes to local shelters or food to local food banks. Just know that you don’t have to keep each and every one that you receive.  Because when a buyer opens a cabinet door and they all fall out – so not cool.

Houses with too many pet items

Sellers – not everyone loves your pets like you do. Not only should your pets be invisible during showings but their accessories must go as well. That would be pet toys, food and water bowls, perches, dog beds, dog and/or cat carriers, large containers of food etc.  Not saying you have to toss it, but please find a way to store them, out of way for showings.

I am sure there are plenty more to add…fire away in the comments below!

Roslyn Ashford, MBA, is a former corporate recruiter turned home stager, and native Washingtonian (as in DC).  She hosts a bi-weekly tweet chat for home stagers and loves to stage small and vacant homes. Learn more about her growing company here or follow her on Twitter to keep up with the daily hilarity!

Note: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinion or position of Zillow.

COURTESY OF YOUR NUMBER ONE ARCADIA REAL ESTATE AGENT


Regulator Vows New Rules to Repair Mortgage Markets

In a move aimed at making it easier for consumers to get mortgages, the federal regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac FMCC -2.12% said Monday the mortgage giants would address a big controversy of the housing bust: who gets stuck with bad loans.

Fannie and Freddie have forced banks to repurchase billions of mortgages that have defaulted over the past few years. To protect themselves from facing similar demands, banks have raised their lending standards beyond what the two mortgage companies require, scrutinized appraisals, and demanded extensive documentation of a borrower’s income and assets.

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ReutersA bank-owned home for sale in Encinitas, Calif., in a file photo from 2009.

To ease lenders’ concerns, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said on Monday it would issue guidance that would detail steps that could limit their risk of having to buy back defaulted mortgages in costly loan “put-backs.”

For example, banks will be released from having to buy back a loan under certain conditions if the mortgage has a record of on-time payments for the first 36 months, or for the first 12 months on loans that are part of an existing refinancing initiative. Those changes will take effect next year.

It isn’t clear how far the latest guidance will go toward making it easier for consumers to get a mortgage. While mortgage rates have fallen by a full percentage point over the last 18 months, demand for new loans remains nearly unchanged from one year ago.

“For the market to reclaim the strength it once had—and to provide a cornerstone for the mortgage market of the future—it is vital we consider ways to improve” the loan review process, Edward DeMarco, the acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, told an industry conference Monday.

Fannie and Freddie don’t make loans, but instead acquire or guarantee those made by banks and other lenders. Those banks make certain “representations and warranties” to Fannie and Freddie when they sell loans, and the mortgage giants can force banks to take back any loans found to run afoul of those standards. Over the past year, banks have charged that Fannie and Freddie are putting back more loans that defaulted for reasons that had nothing to do with an underwriting defect.

Fannie and Freddie have asked that banks buy back nearly $75 billion in loans that lenders sold to the mortgage giants since 2005, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry newsletter.

The new rules won’t have any impact on the current battle over who winds up with the bad loans made during the boom years.

In exchange for shielding banks against put-backs on certain loans, Fannie and Freddie will step up screening for potential loan defects of new mortgages. Officials said Monday that a more robust data-collection system implemented in recent years has made it possible to increasingly review loans as they are acquired, as opposed to reviewing them after they default.

Because buying back one bad loan can wipe out the profit on 30 or 40 good loans, lenders have become extremely cautious in approving mortgages. “If there’s a question at some point, it’s the safer move to deny” the loan, said Bob Walters, chief economist at Quicken Loans.

An April survey of senior loan officers by the Federal Reserve showed that the risk of put-backs had become a leading factor preventing banks from easing credit standards for mortgages, even as they have eased standards for other loans, such as cars and credit cards.

“Lenders have pulled back because they don’t know what their future exposure around repurchases is going to be…. Ultimately that has limited the availability of mortgage credit,” said Maria Fernandez, associate director for housing and regulatory policy at the FHFA.

The agency’s goal, she added, “is to be very clear with lenders what our expectations are so we can help facilitate more liquidity.”

Industry analysts said the impact of the new rules would rest largely on the details of the rules issued by Fannie and Freddie, and how they enforce those rules. “If you have written guidance from these quasi-government agencies what their terms are, they can’t really walk away from that,” said Laurence Platt, a banking-industry lawyer at K&L Gates in Washington.

At the same time, banks face new regulation in the coming year that could keep them in a defensive position. One provision of the Dodd-Frank financial-overhaul law, for example, carries potentially steep penalties if banks don’t properly ensure a borrower has the capacity to repay a loan.

Some large banks are also facing subpoenas from federal prosecutors as part of an effort by the FHFA’s inspector general to determine whether the U.S. could recoup money from banks that sold defaulted loans to Fannie and Freddie, according to people familiar with the investigation.

“It’s one step forward, two steps back,” said Mr. Platt. “You have a bunch of different legs that aren’t walking in unison.”

By NICK TIMIRAOS

COURTESY OF YOUR NUMBER ONE ARCADIA REAL ESTATE AGENT

6 ways to get a great mortgage deal

By Ismat Sarah Mangla @Money April 30, 2012: 3:06 PM ET

Finding a great deal on an affordable house is no longer a problem but qualifying for a mortgage can be.
Finding a great deal on an affordable house is no longer a problem but qualifying for a mortgage can be.

(MONEY Magazine) — Finding an affordable house is no longer a problem but qualifying for a mortgage can be. Six tips to getting a mortgage and a good rate.

Put your credit on ice. The higher your credit score, the lower your rate: The best rates go to those with a 760 or more, says credit-score expert John Ulzheimer.

So keep that plastic in your wallet (and don’t apply for new cards or other loans) for at least three months before you go loan shopping. One large balance — even if it’s paid off at the end of the month — can ding your score by 20 points or more.

Ask for time. Most sales contracts give you only 10 days to nab a loan or the seller can move on. Negotiate for an additional five to 10 days to give you some room to shop around.

More: 8 ways to save on remodeling

Get at least six quotes. Rates on a 30-year fixed conforming loan can vary at least as much as a quarter of a percentage point. Get quotes from national lenders at mortgagemarvel.com and find out what your local credit union or regional bank is offering as well. Inquire about fees; while lenders aren’t required to give you a good-faith estimate of closing costs (which average 2% of the loan balance) until you actually apply, some will provide it if you ask.

Match the lock period to the loan. You now need 60 days or more to close a loan, says Wharton professor and mortgage expert Jack Guttentag of mtgprofessor.com, and getting an extension on a lock will cost at least a couple hundred dollars. Ask your lender how long it’s taking to close loans like yours — and don’t lock for less.

Money 101: Buying homeowner’s insurance

Opt for an ARM. If you know you’re not going to be in a house for more than seven years, adjustable-rate mortgages can mean big savings, says Guttentag. The monthly payment on a $300,000, seven-year ARM at the recent rate of 3.23% is $1,302, vs. $1,455 for a 30-year fixed at 4.13%.

Talk to a broker. Those who need a jumbo loan or have an unusual situation (say, you’re self-employed) will get the best deal from a mortgage broker who has access to and experience with a lot of lenders. Find a fee-only one at upfrontmortgagebrokers.org.

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Foreclosure activity hits lowest level since Q4 2007

RealtyTrac warns distressed-property ‘dam … will eventually burst’

BY INMAN NEWS, THURSDAY, APRIL 12, 2012.

Inman News®

<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/gallery-449740p1.html">Foreclosed home image</a> via Shutterstock.Foreclosed home image via Shutterstock.

Foreclosure filings hit their lowest level in more than four years in the first quarter, according to a report from foreclosure data aggregator RealtyTrac.

Default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions were filed on 572,928 properties in the first quarter, or one in every 230 U.S. housing units — the lowest number of filings since fourth-quarter 2007, when 527,740 properties received filings.

Last quarter’s foreclosure activity was down 2 percent from the fourth quarter and 16 percent from first-quarter 2011. March accounted for nearly 38 percent of the quarter’s foreclosure activity, with 198,853 properties receiving filings. That was the lowest monthly total and the first under 200,000 since July 2007, the report said.

On an annual basis, foreclosure activity fell 17 percent in March.

“The low foreclosure numbers in the first quarter are not an indication that the massive reservoir of distressed properties built up over the past few years has somehow miraculously evaporated,” said Brandon Moore, RealtyTrac’s CEO, in a statement.

“There are hairline cracks in the dam, evident in the sizable foreclosure activity increases in judicial foreclosure states over the past several months, along with an increase in foreclosure starts in many judicial and nonjudicial states in March.

“The dam may not burst in the next 30 to 45 days, but it will eventually burst, and everyone downstream should be prepared for that to happen — both in terms of new foreclosure activity and new short-sale activity.”

States that use the nonjudicial foreclosure process lead the nationwide decline in foreclosure activity, RealtyTrac said. Those 24 states and Washington, D.C., saw foreclosure activity drop 8 percent from the fourth quarter and 28 percent from first-quarter 2011.

Several nonjudicial states saw significant year-over-year drops in activity in the first quarter: Arkansas (79 percent), Nevada (62 percent), Washington (55 percent), Arizona (41 percent), Texas (31 percent), and California (21 percent).

By contrast, foreclosure activity rose 8 percent quarter to quarter and 10 percent year over year in the 26 states that mainly use the judicial foreclosure process.

Judicial states that posted some of the biggest annual increases include Indiana (45 percent), Connecticut (38 percent), Massachussetts (26 percent), Florida (26 percent), South Carolina (26 percent), Pennsylvania (23 percent).

Source: RealtyTrac.

Foreclosure starts, which include default notices or scheduled auctions depending on the state, rose for the third straight month in March, up 7 percent from February, though still down 11 percent year over year.

Foreclosure starts increased on a monthly basis in 31 states, with the biggest jumps in Nevada (153 percent), Utah (103 percent), New Jersey (73 percent), Maryland (53 percent), and North Carolina (47 percent).

Nevada posted the nation’s highest foreclosure activity rate last quarter, with one in 95 units receiving a filing — a 62 percent year-over-year drop.

California had the second-highest foreclosure activity rate (1 in 103 units), followed by Arizona (1 in 106 units).

Top 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates

Area Foreclosure rate (Q1 2012)
U.S. 1 in 230 housing units
Nevada 1 in 95
California 1 in 103
Arizona 1 in 106
Georgia 1 in 119
Florida 1 in 123
Illinois 1 in 141
Michigan 1 in 162
Colorado 1 in 191
Utah 1 in 198
Wisconsin 1 in 206

Source: RealtyTrac

California metro areas accounted for 12 of the 20 metros with the highest foreclosure rates in the nationa in the first quarter, including eight of the top 10.

20 U.S. metros with the highest foreclosure rates

Metro area Foreclosure rate (Q1 2012)
Stockton, Calif. 1 in 60 housing units
Modesto, Calif. 1 in 60
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 1 in 62
Vallejo-Fairfield, Calif. 1 in 63
Merced, Calif. 1 in 72
Sacramento–Arden-Arcade–Roseville, Calif. 1 in 77
Bakersfield, Calif. 1 in 81
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. 1 in 82
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. 1 in 87
Visalia-Porterville, Calif. 1 in 89
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. 1 in 90
Fresno, Calif. 1 in 92
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla. 1 in 95
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif. 1 in 97
Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla. 1 in 101
Rockford, Ill. 1 in 104
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Ill.-Ind.-Wis. 1 in 107
Chico, Calif. 1 in 111
Prescott, Ariz. 1 in 113
Santa Rosa-Petaluma, Calif. 1 in 113

Source: RealtyTrac.

From start to finish, the foreclosure process took an average of 370 days to complete nationwide, up from 348 days in the fourth quarter — the highest average in the past five years, according to RealtyTrac.

Some key states are seeing foreclosure timelines decrease, however. In California, the average was 320 days, down from 352 days in the fourth quarter.

Colorado, Utah, Massachusetts, Nevada, Michigan and Maryland also saw declines.

The five states with the longest foreclosure timelines were New York (1,056 days), New Jersey (966 days), Florida (861 days), Illinois (628 days), and Maryland (618 days).

China’s Hidden Housing Debt

By TOM ORLIK

China’s property sector might be sinking in the sand of mounting liabilities.

The official data suggest that loans to China’s thousands of developers at the end of the first quarter totaled a manageable 3.6 trillion yuan ($570 billion), equal to just 6.3% of total yuan loans in the banking system.

A look at the financials of 159 mainland-listed developers, though, suggests the official numbers are not telling the whole story. Numbers from Wind—a China data provider—show total liabilities for this subset ballooned to 1.8 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2012. That’s more than 100% higher than the level when the government first pointed its policy needle at the property bubble in early 2010.

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Mounting liabilities reflect a variety of factors. In 2010, despite declaring war on house prices, the government was slow to clamp down on credit. By 2011, loans were in short supply but developers allowed other liabilities like supplier invoices to mount. Most recently, lending rebounded in the first quarter of 2012, listed developers borrowed 48 billion yuan, more than twice the figure for all of 2011.

Official data might also understate the banks’ exposure to property. Alongside bona fide developers, state-owned enterprises are sometimes tempted to dabble, either as developers or speculators. Some loans intended for building blast furnaces or shipping fleets actually end up as luxury apartments.

The banks are also exposed through the use of property as collateral. At Bank of China,3988.HK -0.98% for example, 39% of loans were secured on property and other immoveable assets at the end of 2011. The risk is that a sharper-than-expected price fall would hit developers’ ability to repay loans at the same time as the a decline in the value of property banks hold as collateral.

China’s real-estate sector is in a policy-induced correction, with sales and prices both down from a year ago. Despite that, signs of a modest recovery in demand and easier access to credit in recent months have made markets optimistic about the prospects of a soft landing. Listed mainland developers have rallied strongly in Hong Kong this year.

If sales continue creeping higher, most developers are well placed to cover their debts. But if sales dry up, higher debt than is recognized in official data means the foundations of China’s real-estate sector are less solid than they appear.