By Nick Timiraos
Home prices finally hit a bottom in 2012, well ahead of many predictions that called for continued price drops this year.
Prices were up 6% from one year ago in October, according to CoreLogic CLGX -0.26%, putting them on track for their best year since 2005. Housing starts, which hit a bottom three years ago, ramped up to their highest level in four years. Sales of new homes are running around 20% of last year’s levels, while existing home sales are up around 10%. Continued declines in homes listed for sale—particularly foreclosures—explain much of the improving price picture.
So will 2013 be the year of recovery or relapse? Evidence points more strongly to a continued rebound, albeit one that still has considerable headwinds and that varies from one market to another. This week, we’ll offer five areas of focus for 2013.
1. Don’t fear the shadow. For years, housing analysts have warned that a glut of delinquent mortgages—a so-called “shadow” inventory of eventual foreclosures—would overwhelm housing markets. That hasn’t happened.
On a national basis, the shadow inventory is still there, but it is slowly getting smaller. The number of homes that were 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure fell to around 3 million in October, down by more than 430,000 this year and nearly 1.3 million from the peak in 2010, according to Barclays Capital. Normally, there’s a “shadow” of around 800,000, which means the excess shadow supply stands at around 2.2 million.
Banks have slowed down their foreclosure processes and while those could ramp up in 2013, they’re unlikely to lead to a deluge of supply. Also, big declines in new construction over the past few years have pushed the current housing demand, however muted, towards absorbing the excess supply of foreclosed homes.
The shadow inventory is often discussed as a national phenomenon, but it isn’t really national anymore. States where banks have struggled to meet court-administered foreclosure processes have a significantly higher share of unresolved bad debt: around 5.9% of mortgages are in foreclosure in those judicial states, compared with fewer than 2% in nonjudicial states, according to Lender Processing Services.
Many housing markets “will swallow what foreclosures come to the market whole because we’re seeing inventory shortages develop, acutely,” says Jeffrey Otteau, president of appraisal firm Otteau Valuation Group in East Brunswick, N.J.
In New Jersey, which has the second highest foreclosure rate in the country, the bigger problem is that many foreclosures are concentrated in certain communities, particularly inner-city and rural areas. “Those markets are going to take it on the chin,” he says.
© 2013 The Peral Group